Sales of existing homes in the United States continue to decline

In October, the total hit the lowest level since October 2010, below expectations. Worse, relative to the number of American households, sales are the lowest since the early 1980s, below the worst post-crisis period in 2008.

At the same time, note that the low number of transactions keeps prices high: the median price is still 10% higher than in 2021. However, inventory continues to add: +1.8% per month, while October is on average the month of declining inventory and the strongest month October since 2006. This bodes well for future price declines in the first month, which will not be seen until mortgage rates fall again, a decline that will be driven by key rate cuts.

The good news is that this is another engine of disinflation that has not yet been activated, the bad news is that a significant fall in old property prices will have a negative impact on the wealth effect and thus on the consumption behavior of the affected household.

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