Activity indexes you want, here are some for early 2024

Posted on December 29, 2023 at 3:56 pm

The holidays are over. After a poor end to 2023 in terms of economic statistics, the first week of 2024 promises to be rich in macroeconomic meetings, including the December Eurozone consumer price data and the US employment report. We will have to wait until Friday to record these two indicators, which are so decisive for the direction of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve System.

But not so fast. Before this enticing program, Tuesday deserves a little attention. The core of the meeting will be the PMI acronym for “Purchasing Managers’ Index”. These are simply monthly surveys conducted among panels of selected companies to assess the current state of the private sector by tracking variables such as activity, new business, employment and prices. The final results of these surveys for the manufacturing sector in December will be published at 10:00 for the Eurozone and at 15:45 for the United States.

In the first case, economists polled by the financial information agency Bloomberg expect the index to remain at 44.2 points. French and German PMIs also released this morning were expected to stabilize month-on-month at 42 in France and 43.1 across the Rhine. As a reminder, an index above 50 signals growth in activity and a lower number indicates contraction.

In the United States, the market expects a slight upward revision to the first estimate to 48.4, compared to the 48.2 initially reported. Also worth watching is the development of construction spending in November across the Atlantic, which is expected to increase by 0.6% from the previous month.

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